SO, here we are, at the end of the first decade of the twenty first century. These past ten years certainly seem to have whizzed by, have they not? Just the other day, it seems, we were wondering whether life would come to a standstill as the first few moments of the new millennium were being born. Would the millennium bug hit all our computers, would planes crash, would unimaginable calamities bring the planet to a shuddering halt? Of course, nothing happened. Still, the fact that the new millennium was ushered in with such fear of doomsday predictions coming true, makes it impossible to forget the start of this decade that has just gone by.

All over the world, people are busy trying to put a name to the past decade. What is the word, or the pithy phrase, that can encapsulate the spirit of the decade best? Or indeed, is there such a word at all? After all, ten years is a long time. Many things happen during that span, all of them so diverse that their very heterogeneity defies any attempt to sum up the whole period in a phrase. Still, trends do make themselves apparent.

Perhaps one of the more noticeable traits of these times is the fact, indeed, of doomsday predictions themselves. The way the decade started was in itself a sign of things to come. Living as we do in an era of increasing technological innovations, it has become much easier to risk one’s reputation and predict something. And these days, no prediction can remain unknown to the world for long. The men and women in the media are busy people, and catching a prediction, especially if it is an alarmist one, is their speciality. In any case, even the scientific fraternity, who one would think were much more specific than you and I, seem to be quite careless with some of their predictions.

Looking back, then, we can perhaps call this the Decade of Failed Predictions. Of course, we are thankful that so many of these doomsday scenarios actually did fail. Still, one cannot help feeling a bit of annoyance at the predictors – why did they make us lose our sleep by worrying uselessly about things that never came to pass? The way the media blew up many of these forecasts, it was impossible to remain unaffected by them. Anchors would earnestly talk about the coming End of the World, panellists would be called to pontificate, pie charts would be created, and flaunted…it was impossible to remain unaffected by all this. Especially when we were told that hospitals would stop functioning, people on ventilators would die, and much more besides. It does seem, in hindsight, all rather amazing.

Many predictions are even now being made, quite recklessly, it seems, in spite of being proved wrong in the past. One of these is the Great Earthquake Prediction. When it comes to pointing out the time at which the next large tremblor will strike, it does seem, does it not, that seismologists are as clueless as you and I. But whereas you and I would never have the temerity to hazard a guess about how big and when the next quake will be, predicting the next Big Shake seems to have become a bit of a hobby among sober and serious members of the scientific fraternity. For years, decades now, we have been hearing predictions of how a Really Big One is due. Some have even given an approximate time when all will be flattened. Memories of the Great Earthquakes of the past are revived, stories about the terrible things that would happen are splashed about with abandon in the media. Naturally, living in Seismic Zone V, we are all in a state of panic. Especially when we see our Government, otherwise quite stodgy and not known to be proactive in any manner, running drills on earthquake preparedness.

Well, thank goodness these predictions have not come true, yet. Still, one does resent the sense of panic that they evoked at the time. And one does wonder, why did no seismologist predict the highly unusual series of jolts that shook us routinely a couple of months ago? Could it be that they were so busy predicting the Next Big One, that they ignored this extraordinary phenomenon taking place right under their noses?

There was one phrase that was quite a catchword during much of the early part of the decade gone by. It was quite amazing to see all the deliberations that took place, even in our corner of the world, on the phenomenon of the hole in the ozone layer. The way it was being projected in talkathons even in our city, it seemed we would all soon perish after being bombarded by huge amounts of UV rays through this vast hole. Not many of us understood the science of it, but we assumed that scientists did so. We dutifully stopped using CFCs, but we were told, even then, that this was not going to be enough. We would die horrible deaths anyway, pretty soon.

Well, guess what. The hole in the ozone layer is now healing. That’s great news. But why didn’t they tell us, when they were making such doomsday predictions, that this would happen if we made a few simple changes in our lives? The thing about doomsday predictions is that the predictors seem to have tunnel vision. They never seem to see that these scenarios that they relish painting are actually worst case ones. The amount of panic that their blinkered “predictions” create is indeed avoidable.

Climate change is a fertile area for doomsday predictions. It’s getting hotter, globally. The glaciers are melting. The seas are rising, coastal cities will soon be swamped. While we are gulping down these terrible bits of information, we hear, from opposite parties with equally impressive scientific credentials, that no, the glaciers are not melting, and even if the seas rise, no city will be swamped. Besides, global warming, they tell us now, is actually going to be good for agriculture. What, one wonders, is one to believe?

One area that is routinely full of failed predictions is that of weather (as opposed to climate). In the decade past, one saw meteorologists getting it all wrong with delightful regularity. When they told us it would rain, the sun blazed unremittingly over our heads. When they told us it would be sunny, our land drowned under inches of rainwater. Indeed, over the years, our weathermen have become past masters at producing Failed Predictions.

All Things Considered, failing to predict events that actually happened can also be categorised as a malfunction of a similar kind. When it came to terror, the past decade served up unthinkable horrors. The dreadfulness of 9/11 and 26/11 was indeed unimagined. Even our own Guwahati, so used to terror strikes, reeled under the enormity of the 30th October serial blasts. But did anybody actually predict anything of this sort? Of course not.

So, there we have it. The Decade of Failed Predictions is undoubtedly what the Noughties (from the noughts signifying the beginning of the decade) of the twenty first century should be known by. And as we raise a toast to the New Decade, let’s hope that this won’t be repeated in the Teenage Years of this Millennium. Let’s hope we weather all the doomsday predictions that are thrown at us!

Happy New Year!

MITRA PHUKAN